Is the price fair or a robbery?
No probabilities, no formulas. Compare two prices: the one the bookmaker offers and the one you think is fair. If your price is lower than theirs, you have value — and we tell you how much to stake to use it without wrecking your bankroll.
The idea
Value is a gap, not a feeling.
Where does your fair price come from?
Look at the odds across several bookmakers and take the average — that is the market price. If you have a real, objective reason to think a result is more likely than the market says (recent form, injuries, motivation), your fair price will be lower than the market.
If you have no objective reason to disagree, do not bet. You do not have value — you have a hunch. And confusing a wish with a probability is the most expensive mistake there is.
Does this bet have value?
Compare two prices. The gap is your value.
The price you see on bet365, DraftKings, etc.
What you would charge for this bet if you were the bookmaker.
Total money set aside for betting.
Balanced (recommended): stakes well without extreme swings.
+6.44% edge
Over the long run, this bet earns you 13.51 cents for every euro staked.
30.71 €
6.14% of your bankroll · balanced style
Bookmaker implies
47.6%
You estimate
54.1%
Expected gain
+4.15 €
If you win
+33.78 €
The suggested stake uses the fractional Kelly Criterion. If you overestimate your fair price, this figure is inflated and you will risk too much. Honesty beats wishful thinking.