Does that price have value?
Expected Value tells you whether a bet is mathematically good in the long run, regardless of whether this single one wins or loses. If you reckon something happens 55% of the time and the bookmaker pays 2.10 (= 47.6% implied), there's value. If they pay 1.70 (= 58.8% implied), there isn't.
The formula
EV = prob × win − (1−prob) × stake
= 0.55 × (2.10 − 1) − 0.45 × 1
= 0.605 − 0.45 = +EUR0.155 EV
- · Across 100 similar bets, you win +EUR15.5 in expected value (not a guarantee — expected).
- · The implied prob of an odds is 1/odds. 2.10 = 47.6%. Anything above that gives you value.
- · The bookmaker bakes in a margin (juice): your true prob needs to be higher than the implied just to break even long term.
Important: EV is only as good as your estimate. If you think something is 60% but reality is 40%, the EV you calculated is a lie. That's why betting with a brain means measuring your hit rate and CLV in public — to find out whether your estimates can be trusted.
The decimal odds the book is offering (e.g. 2.10).
How likely YOU think it is to happen (0-100).
Expected Value
+15.50%
Bet with value. Long term, for every EUR1 staked you'd win +15.50c.
Implied probability of the odds
47.62%
What your probability needs to clear just to break even.
Your edge
+7.38 pp
How far above break-even your estimate sits.