The Analyst who thinks he's god

You don't bet on intuition, of course not. You have models, market reads, a spreadsheet that proves the house is wrong and you're not. And maybe you really are smarter than average. The problem isn't your analysis: it's your yield. You've spent months convinced you have an edge and months in the red, and instead of reviewing the model, you review your luck. Variance, you tell yourself. The Analyst who thinks he's god confuses effort with results: because he worked hard on the bet, he assumes it's a good one. But the market owes you nothing for your hours of Excel. Having an edge isn't believing you have one: it's being able to prove it over a large sample. And yours, be honest, doesn't prove it yet.